If you are having difficulty seeing this email, you can view it online here.
Email ASB 0800 803 804
Ahead of the curve

Key highlights

Dairy prices posted further solid gains overnight.
Wet weather continues to stall NZ dairy production, pushing prices higher.
As a result, there is now clear upside risk to our $6.00/kg milk price forecast.

Report prepared by:

Nathan Penny, ASB Rural Economist
Phone: +64 9 448 8778
Email: nathan.penny@asb.co.nz

Our $6.00/kg milk price forecast is in the bag. In fact, if anything, we are ahead of the curve in terms of where we thought we would be at this stage of the season.

Back in April, we thought WMP prices would reach circa US$3,000/MT by November. Whereas now, they have clearly surpassed that level; WMP prices now sit above US$3,400/MT or some 13% higher than we had anticipated back then.

This extra price lift, however, does not come for free. Farmers in the central and upper North Island are staring at production falls for the season in the 10% range. That said, a rising milk price does still lift all boats.

Moreover, with another solid result in the bag, there is now clear upside to our $6.00/kg 2016/17 milk price forecast. As a result, we place our forecast “under review”.

For now though and given how far prices have come, we sit on our hands, and wait for further confirmation that prices stick at this level. Meanwhile, we also flag that we expect Fonterra to lift its milk price forecast from $5.25/kg to at least $5.75/kg any time soon.

Read the full PDF Report

Important Disclaimer - The views expressed herein are those of the authors and are based on information believed but not warranted to be correct. Any views or information, whilst given in good faith, are not necessarily the views of ASB Bank Limited and are given with an express disclaimer of responsibility and no right of action shall arise against any of the authors, ASB Bank Limited or its employees either directly or indirectly out of any views, advice or information.
Security Reminder
ASB will never ask you by email for your secure banking information (account or credit card details, password, PIN number or NetCode details) or ask you to Log in to your account from an email. ASB will always ask you to Log in through our website and you should do so by typing www.asb.co.nz directly into your browser address bar. If you are concerned about an email's authenticity, please contact us directly on 0800 327 863 or forward the email to phishing@asb.co.nz

Stop receiving emails

Unsubscribe from
ASB emails


Read more about the safe and secure service ASB provides to its customers

Privacy Policy

See how ASB safeguards your personal and financial information

Terms & Conditions

The terms & conditions of our products and services
© ASB Bank Ltd. 2013