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Dairy delivers as expected

Key highlights

Dairy prices lifted modestly overnight, with the lift bang on our expectations.
Heading into 2016, we continue to expect dairy prices to lift as NZ production falls further.
As a result, we stick with our $4.60/kg milk price forecast.

Report prepared by:

Nathan Penny, ASB Rural Economist
Phone: +64 9 448 8778
Email: nathan.penny@asb.co.nz


Our view remains that dairy prices will move higher over 2016.  With NZ production weak so far this season and getting weaker, a large hole is developing in global dairy exports.

At this juncture however, dairy markets and buyers are not in a particular hurry.  Demand is sluggish and buyers are looking to relatively strong production from other producers to fill the hole.

But eventually the NZ production shortfall will bite.  And dairy prices will move higher.  On this basis and with the price lift overnight, we stick with our 2015/16 milk price forecast of $4.60/kg.

Read the full PDF Report

Important Disclaimer - The views expressed herein are those of the authors and are based on information believed but not warranted to be correct. Any views or information, whilst given in good faith, are not necessarily the views of ASB Bank Limited and are given with an express disclaimer of responsibility and no right of action shall arise against any of the authors, ASB Bank Limited or its employees either directly or indirectly out of any views, advice or information.
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