• The magnitude of the economic recovery over Q4 will be the focus for the week.  We are expecting a 0.5% increase in GDP, close the RBNZ’s pick of 0.6% but on the softer side of the median market expectation, centred on 0.8%.
• The easing in March consumer confidence was a timely reminder of the caution that remains despite the improved outlook.  Spending growth has been muted over recent months, and a solid turn around in employment growth will be key to reassuring households.
• The current account is the other key release for the week, and the deficit has narrowed substantially over the past year, in the most part due to the recession.  However, as the NZ economy records its third quarter of positive growth, the drivers of the smaller current account deficit are starting to turn.

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