• Recent events have been piling up one straw after another on our view of an April OCR rise, and suggest a June start to the tightening cycle is slightly more likely than an April start. 
• Although we are altering our view of the likely start of the OCR tightening cycle, we are still a little more concerned than the RBNZ appears to be about the medium-term inflation impact. 
• Our view is that a given pace of economic recovery will produce a slightly quicker return of inflation pressure than the RBNZ assesses.  But here and now the RBNZ remains “comfortable” with the inflation outlook.

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