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Business Weekly Economic Report
Inflation benign now but not forever
Monday, 18 January 2010
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We expect the CPI to register a quarter-on-quarter drop of 0.2%, which would lift the annual inflation rate from 1.7% to 1.9% – still just on the low side of the inflation target mid-point.
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But in a year’s time inflation pressures will become more noticeable. One surprising thing about the recession was that it didn’t dampen inflation pressures a great deal.
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The degree of spare capacity will steadily shrink over the next couple of years, and at some point the RBNZ will have to take the punchbowl away.
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Report Prepared by:
Jane Turner
ASB Economist
Phone: +64 9 374 8185
Fax: +64 9 302 0992
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