• Our Q3 GDP forecast is for a flat quarter, slightly below the market median of 0.3%.  The RBNZ’s December Monetary Policy Statement included a 0.4% forecast.  The range of expectations is unusually wide for this release, ranging from -0.5% to +1%.
• But, even if Q3 GDP records a pretty flat result, there are increasing signs that the economy has been gathering momentum as the year draws to a close.  Confidence levels are much higher than 6 months ago, anecdotes suggest the labour market is starting to stir a little, and housing construction is starting to pick up from a low base. 
• This is our last Economic Weekly for 2009.  The first Economics Weekly for 2010 will be on January 11.  We wish you a safe and merry Christmas and New Year.

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