• Local events of the past week made us increasingly wary about the chances the RBNZ will wait until ‘the latter part of 2010’ before starting to lift the OCR back towards a more normal level. 
• First cab off the rank was NZ house prices, REINZ’s new stratified median price measure has risen nearly 8% off its low, reversing losses made since roughly mid-2008.  Next, Q3 CPI inflation increased 1.3% qoq, considerably stronger than expected as underlying inflation pressures have not weakened to the extent expected.
• The risk has grown of the RBNZ unwinding the stimulus earlier than it implies.  We now see April as the more likely timing (previously June).

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