• As we indicated last week, we saw a chance that Q2 could register growth of the tiniest fraction, forecasting a 0.1% rise.  The outcome, released last Wednesday, confirmed the end of 15 months continued economic contraction.
• The uplifting news is that the economy has ended a 2.9% contraction.  But before anybody starts popping champagne corks and declaring the recession is officially over, it is worth remembering that the growth we expect in the second half of the year is still very weak.
• The other piece of encouragement was the surge in consumer confidence, as surveyed by Westpac McDermott Miller.  Sentiment is distinctly above average and at a 4-year high.  The return of confidence points to wallets being opened slightly more readily heading into Christmas.

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